Venezuela, un pays au bord de la faillite

Par le 12 mars 2019

Le Venezuela traverse actuellement une des crises les plus importantes de son histoire. Une récente panne de courant vient plonger la population dans le chaos.

La situation actuelle du Venezuela

© REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

Mercredi 23 janvier 2019, le Venezuela devenait un État bicéphale. En effet, aux côtés du Président contesté, Nicolás MaduroJuan Guaido, président de l’Assemblée nationale vénézuelienne, s’autoproclamait président en exercice du Venezuela.
La visée politique d’un tel acte est claire : inciter Nicolás Maduro, à la tête du pays depuis 2013, à délaisser le pouvoir. Les reproches à l’égard du Président contesté sont divers : direction du pays en autocrate, contournement de la Constitution, responsabilité dans l’effondrement économique du pays…

Néanmoins, la crise ne s’arrête pas aux frontières du pays latin. La raisonnance de l’acte politique de Juan Guaido est internationale : des dizaines de pays du globe se retranchent derrière le Président autoproclamé, notamment la France, le Brésil ou encore les États-Unis. L’Union européenne, quant à elle, réclame des élections libres et « crédibles » afin de lever le doute sur la réélection de Maduro, en mai 2018, et sa réelle légitimité à gouverner le pays.
Le Venezuela en est tout de même déchiré : quelques 10.000 manifestants étaient mobilisés, le mercredi 23 janvier, et assistaient en direct à la revendication du pouvoir de Juan Guaido. Néanmoins, une partie de la population soutient encore le président contesté. L’armée vénézuelienne ne reconnaît également pas l’acte politique de Juan Guaido.

La plus grande crise migratoire de l’histoire de l’Amérique latine

Depuis 2014, le Venezuela connaît une crise migratoire sans précédent. Ce ne sont pas mons de 2,3 millions de vénézuéliens (soit 7% de la population locale) qui ont décidé de quitter le territoire pour échapper à la crise. L’Agence des Nations Unies pour les réfugiés en est convaincue : la crise migratoire vécue actuellement par le Venezuela est l’un des mouvements de population les plus importants de l’histoire de l’Amérique latine.

Un nouveau refuge

Parmi les pays d’accueil des migrants vénézuéliens, la Colombie demeure la principale accueillante : ils étaient 600.000 vénézuéliens fin 2017, désormais, ils sont plus d’un million.
Aux États-Unis, c’étaient 290.000 individus qui rejoignaient le territoire américain pour fuir la crise vénézuélienne. Un quart sont concentrés en Floride.

Les conséquences du départ

Néanmoins, cet important mouvement de population n’est pas sans conséquence. Ainsi, l’Equateur annonce l’état d’urgence alors que 500.000 individus pénétraient ses frontières en 2018. La même année, le Brésil doit gérer des heurts entre population brésilienne et migrants vénézuéliens, à Pacaraima.
S’ensuit un durcissement des conditions d’entrée en Colombie, en Equateur ou encore au Pérou. Alors que la carte d’identité nationale suffisait jusqu’ici pour dépasser les frontières, désormais, un passeport est exigé. Cette condition apparaît d’autant plus stricte que le Venezuela doit faire face à une pénurie de papier, rendant l’obtention d’un passeport presque impossible.

L’économie vénézuélienne, proche de l’asphyxie

Depuis 2014, la crise économique ralentit l’activité du pays et rend son avenir incertain.
Un quart de la population vit sous le seuil de pauvreté, le pays doit quotidiennement gérer les pénuries de biens de première nécessité ainsi que les violences et corruptions. Le quotidien des habitants est rythmé par la baisse de production des entreprises, les conditions de vie sont désastreuses. Plus de 30% des enfants âgés de moins de cinq ans font face à la malnutrition.

Le pétrole pour survivre

© Le Monde

Durant la 1ère moitié du XXème siècle, le Venezuela était l’un des plus importants producteurs de pétrole brut. Si bien que les entreprises américaines devinrent les premières acheteuses de droits d’exploitation du pays latin. Encore aujourd’hui, l’économie du pays repose presqu’intégralement sur l’exportation du pétrole, soit 96% des devises.
Néanmoins, la chute mondiale des cours du pétrole brut ont grandement aggravé la crise économique vénézuélienne. En 2018, le Fonds monétaire international situe l’inflation à 1,37 million pour cent : la situation économique du pays s’approche dangereusement de celle de l’Allemagne dans les années 20.

Un pays surendetté

Le pétrole, seule monnaie d’échange du Venezuela contre ses opposants internationaux et commerciaux, ne suffit plus à ralentir la dette. L’or noir était pour le pays latin, une facilité de paiement afin d’obtenir des subventions et services étrangers.
Ainsi, la Chine importait 323.000 barils par jour en 2014 contre des investissements et prêts à long terme. La dette du Venezuela s’élevait à l’égard de son partenaire chinois, à 20 millions de dollars à la fin de l’année 2015.
Toutefois, les États-Unis restent le client privilégié du Venezuela en terme d’importation de pétrole : ce sont près de 800.000 barils de pétrole brut par jour qui entrent sur le territoire nord-américain, en 2014.

Le Venezuela, plongé dans le noir… et le chaos

© YURI CORTEZ/AFP

Jeudi 7 mars à 16h50, le Venezuela connaît un nouvel acte qui mine le pays. Une panne de courant générale plonge la région dans l’asphyxie économique et le chaos. Les lignes téléphoniques et internet sont coupées. Il en est de même pour la distribution d’eau dans les immeubles, exercée grâce à des pompes électriques qui ne sont plus alimentées. Les transactions économiques sont également à l’arrêt, alors que l’inflation n’offre plus la possibilité de détenir de l’argent liquide et que les cartes de crédits ne sont plus utilisables.

Le bilan s’élève déjà à 15 morts. Ces patients atteints de maladies rénales sont décédés en à peine 48 heures, sans recours possible à la dialyse.
Samedi 9 mars, Juan Guaido appelait à la mobilisation et annonçait songer à autoriser l’intervention militaire étrangère, en vertu de l’article 187 de la Constitution.

Les États-Unis pointés du doigt

« Aujourd’hui, 9 mars, nous avions avancé à près de 70 % [dans le rétablissement de l’électricité] lorsque nous avons reçu à la mi-journée une autre attaque cybernétique visant une des sources d’énergie qui fonctionnait parfaitement. Cela a annulé tout ce que nous avions réalisé », déclarait Nicolás Maduro.

Pour le ministre de la Défense, Vladimir Padrino López, la panne serait une « agression délibérée » des États-Unis. La compagnie d’électricité vénézuélienne, Corpoelec, évoque quant à elle, un « sabotage » de la centrale hydroéléctrique la plus importante du pays, Guri. Le président contesté par Donald Trump, Nicolás Maduro, évoquait finalement une « attaque cybernétique » dans une « guerre électrique » perpétrée par les États-Unis.

Donald Trump, intraitable sur la question vénézuélienne

Si les États-Unis se montrent si enclins à reconnaître la légitimité de Juan Guaido en tant que Président par intérim, cela est dû aux avantages que pourrait en tirer Donald Trump sur les plans de politique internationale, mais aussi nationale.

Historiquement, les États-Unis et le Venezuela perpétuent certaines tensions depuis l’élection à la présidence du pays latin d’Hugo Chávez. Le nouveau chef d’Etat apparaît fermement décidé à limiter l’influence nord-américaine sur son territoire et favoriser davantage les entreprises chinoises et russes. En 2002, le soutien assuré du gouvernement Bush dans la tentative de coup d’État à l’encontre de Chávez entérine une relation sous haute tension.
La politique de Nicolás Maduro s’inscrit sur une même lignée, alors qu’il était lui-même l’ancien vice-président du gouvernement Chávez.

Toutefois, c’est notamment un point de stratégie électorale qui expliquerait l’engouement certain de Donald Trump pour une destitution de Maduro. En effet, sur les 500.000 migrants vénézuéliens aux États-Unis, un quart sont enregistrés en Floride. Or, l’État du sud-est est reconnu pour son ambivalence entre parti démocratique et parti républicain. Accepter le renversement de la présidence vénézuélienne en défaveur de Maduro permettrait donc au président des États-Unis de s’assurer un électorat stable en Floride, qui viendrait soutenir sa potentielle future candidature aux élections présidentielles de 2020.

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