L’importance des élections législatives suédoises de 2018

Par le 3 septembre 2018

L’heure est à la chaise musicale en Suède. Le 9 septembre 2018, les électeurs suédois seront invités à se rendre aux urnes pour élire les députés qui les représenteront pendant les quatre prochaines années. 349 postes sont à pourvoir et les résultats promettent d’être historiques ! Comment fonctionne le scrutin ? Quel est son importance ? Qui seront les grands gagnants ? Les grands perdants ? On vous explique tout !

 

Fonctionnement et importance du scrutin

Les 349 postes sont répartis en deux catégories distinctes. 310 sièges sont partagés entre 29 circonscriptions, et sont pourvus au scrutin proportionnel plurinominal. Les gens ne votent pas pour une personne mais pour un parti et les postes sont partagés de manière proportionnelle entre les différentes formations (selon la méthode de Sainte Laguë, qui s’appuie sur un vaste système de coefficient trop complexe pour être expliqué ici). Les 39 autres sièges ont un rôle d’affinage, ils sont répartis à l’échelle nationale pour rendre le plus exacte possible les résultats de l’élection. Pour obtenir un de ces sièges, un parti doit avoir obtenu au moins 4% des voix à l’échelle du pays ou 12% dans n’importe quelle circonscription.

La Suède est un pays monarchique moderne, le roi ne possède donc aucun pouvoir et le régime est dit parlementaire, c’est donc le Parlement qui a le pouvoir. Cependant, la constitution suédoise à une particularité qui rend l’élection à venir extrêmement importante. Et pour cause, le Parlement n’est composé que d’une seule chambre, le Riksdag. Plus concrètement, cela signifie que lors de cette élection, les Suédois vont voter pour définir le pouvoir législatif qu’ils souhaitent, certes, mais également pour le pouvoir exécutif. Si en France le Premier ministre est nommé par le Président de la République, en Suède celui-ci est nommé par le Président du Riksdag, ce qui signifie que le Riksdag contrôle non seulement le Gouvernement, mais le défini également. Par ailleurs, la motion de censure suédoise est plus développée que la française. Elle peut certes censurer le Gouvernement, mais aussi un ministre bien précis.

Charles XVI Gustave, roi de Suède (Crédit Photo: Médiamass)

Les grands perdants et les grands gagnants

Gardons les grands gagnants pour la fin, et commençons par les deux grands perdants, le Parti Social-Démocrate suédois des Travailleurs et le Parti Modéré. Tout deux partis historiques du pays, le résultat de l’élection pourrait être, pour eux, un sérieux revers avec tout de même un aspect catastrophique plus prononcé pour le Parti Social-Démocrate. Avec 24% d’intentions de vote, 7 points de moins qu’en 2014, le parti de centre gauche signe son pire score depuis 1911 et l’introduction de la proportionnelle, en se maintenant tout de même premier parti du Parlement, poste qu’il occupe depuis 1917.
Le Parti Modéré, deuxième parti du pays depuis 1976, se voit crédité de 20,3% des voix, en baisse de 3 points par rapport à 2014, signant ainsi son score le plus faible depuis plus d’une décennie. Dans le sillage des deux grands partis historiques, leurs deux grands alliés historiques, respectivement le Parti Vert pour les Sociaux-Démocrates et Les Libéraux pour le Parti Modéré, sont censés eux aussi voir leur nombres de votes reculer.

A l’inverse des grands partis historiques en difficultés, des partis plus jeunes ou ayant disparu du sommet de la scène politique arrivent aujourd’hui en force. Pour faire relativiser le Parti Modéré, ses alliés de “l’Alliance”, le Parti Chrétien-Démocrate et le Parti du Centre sont en progression par rapport à 2014, ce qui devrait offrir à la coalition de droite la première place avec 39,8% des intentions de vote, en hausse de 0,38 points par rapport à 2014. A gauche, seul le Parti de Gauche est en progression, ce qui ne permettra pas à l’alliance “Rouges-Verts” de conserver le pouvoir, car avec 38,6% des intentions de vote, la coalition se place derrière son homologue de droite et accuse une perte de 5 points.

Le parti qui est donné grand gagnant de ces élections législatives 2018 est le parti d’extrême droite Démocrates de Suède, crédité de 18,7% des voix, en hausse de 5,84 points par rapport à 2014. Le parti ne sera pas membre d’une quelconque coalition, exclu par celles-ci, et n’aura pas le pouvoir, mais son score a quasi quadruplé depuis 2010, le positionnant en figure de proue du mouvement tirant profit du déclin des partis historiques, en tablant notamment sur l’immigration, l’intégration et la faillite de l’État providence.

Stefan Löfven, le Premier ministre Suédois (Crédit Photo: metro.se)

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