La loi de Finances 2019

Par le 2 novembre 2018

La loi de Finances désigne le budget de l’État français, c’est-à-dire les dépenses et recettes prévues pour l’année qui va suivre, ici pour l’année 2019.

Ainsi, le budget 2019 a été présenté le 24 septembre 2018 et a commencé à être examiné le 15 octobre par le Parlement conformément aux règles de la loi organique relative aux lois de finances, dîtes la LOLF. Cette dernière étant la loi fixant le cadre juridique de la loi de Finances. 

Les mesures macroéconomiques

Le budget 2019 prévoit une croissance du PIB équivalente à 1,7% en 2018 et 2019.

Les dépenses consacrées par l’État seront quant à elle de l’ordre de 390,8 milliards d’euros en 2019 tandis qu’elles étaient de 386,8 milliards d’euros en 2018. 

Enfin, les recettes seront de 291,4 milliards d’euros, étant de 396,6 en 2018. Ainsi, le texte prévoit un déficit budgétaire de 98,7 milliards d’euros, soit 2,8% du PIB.

En outre, l’État prévoit une progression de la masse salariale de l’ordre de 3,5% en 2018-2019 et une inflation (hausse durable du niveau général des prix) de 1,8 % en 2018 et de 1,4 % en 2019.

Le Haut Conseil des finances publiques (organisme indépendant auprès de la Cour des Comptes qui émet des avis sur le réalisme des projets de l’État, notamment au regard du droit Européen) ne semble pas émettre de réserves quant à ces prévisions. 

Les priorités du Gouvernement

Le Gouvernement esquisse 4 priorités sur lesquels ils fondent son projet de loi des finances publiques :

  1. Baisse des prélèvements obligatoires : il s’agit d’une baisse de près de 6 milliards d’euros d’impôts pour les ménages, la réduction des cotisations chômage et maladie, une exonération des heures supplémentaires de cotisations sociales à partir de septembre 2019. 
  2. Favoriser travail et renforcer l’attractivité des entreprises : un budget de près 2,5 milliards d’euros sera consacré pour le chômage avec la prévision d’une augmentation de la prime d’activité de 20 euros. Le Gouvernement prévoit aussi un allègement des charges, une baisse impôt sur les sociétés, et une fiscalité simplifiée. 
  3. Protection des Français : il s’agit de les protéger socialement avec une prévention de la lutte contre la pauvreté mais aussi en consacrant des moyens à l’armée, la justice et l’Intérieur. 
  4. Préparer l’avenir : sera aussi consacré un pan entier du budget à l’éducation, la recherche ou encore la transition écologique puisqu’est prévu une hausse de la fiscalité écologique ainsi que différentes taxes sur le diesel et l’essence. Est aussi prévue une réforme de l’audiovisuel public, ainsi que la revue des effectifs de l’État en France ou à l’étranger. 

Avec ce projet, Emmanuel Macron souhaite faire émerger sa vision de l’État-providence du XXIème siècle. Il affirme notamment vouloir instaurer une solidarité réelle entre les citoyens français.

Ce projet budgétaire se fonde notamment dans les plans de pauvreté et de santé qu’il a introduit quelques semaines auparavant. 

De plus, « un réel effort est demandé aux retraités » selon les dires du Gouvernement qui souhaite modérer certaines prestations sociales, dont les retraites. 

Pour finir, en janvier 2019 sera introduit le prélèvement à la source, cause de tant de tergiversation au sein de l’opposition mais aussi de la majorité. 

Violentes réactions au sein de l’opposition

Le 23 octobre, le Parlement a adopté le volet recette du projet de loi à 346 voix pour et 181 contre. 

Gérald Darmanin, ministre de l’Action et des Comptes Publics, a défendu son projet au micro de France Inter le 25 septembre en déclarant que « c’est un budget social, qui encourage ceux qui travaillent et qui aide ceux qui veulent reprendre un travail ».

Gérald Darmanin, ministre de l’Action et des Comptes publics. Source : Challenges

Bruno Le Maire, ministre de l’économie et des finances explique quant à lui que « l’objectif à long terme de ce budget et de toute notre politique est de construire une nouvelle prospérité française ». De plus, cette politique « ne repose pas sur toujours plus de dépense publique : elle sera le produit de la création de valeur par les Français et par nos entreprises ».

Pour le l’Institut des politiques publiques (organisme de recherche en politique publique indépendant) considère que les réformes ainsi réalisées et prévues en 2018-2019 auront comme impact une perte du pouvoir d’achat de près de 20% pour les Français les plus modestes tandis que les riches verront leurs revenus à la hausse de 6% environ. 

Eric Woeth considère ce budget comme étant « illisible », étant directement la « conséquence d’une politique brouillonne ». De plus, toujours selon lui, ce projet révèle un rendez-vous manqué avec les prévisions de baisse des dépenses publiques et d’assainissement des finances publiques. Emmanuel Macron aurait alors gâché le cycle économique favorable dans lequel il était lorsqu’il est arrivé au pouvoir. 

Valérie Pécresse, présidente de la région Ile-de-France voit en ce dessein un « budget ni vraiment courageux, ni vraiment ambitieux ». 

La gauche, qui qualifie Macron de « néolibéral », considère cette ébauche budgétaire comme un « cadeau aux riches et laisse les miettes à tous les autres », selon les dires d’Olivier Faure, Secrétaire général du PS. 

Enfin, pour Dupont-Aignan, il s’agit tout simplement « de la com’ pour la com’ » et il n’a pas pesé ses mots sur Twitter en affirmant que « le gouvernement dissimule une hausse de 3 milliards d’euros de taxes sur les carburants et des indexation des retraites et prestations sociales ».

Le projet de loi au regard de l’Union Européenne

Depuis 1992, la France se voit obligée de présenter ses prévisions budgétaires à l’Union Européenne. En effet, le Traité de Maastricht a instauré des critères qui poussent les États membres à contrôler leur niveau d’inflation, leur dette publique, qui ne doit pas dépasser 60% du PIB, ainsi que leur déficit public, qui ne doit pas aller au-delà de 3% du PIB. 

La France a donc remis à la Commission Européenne un document expliquant les objectifs et les moyens pour les atteindre. Le budget français a été accepté sans surprise malgré des demandes de « précisions » et malgré le fait que la dette publique soit de 99%. 

Pierre Moscovisci, commissaire européen. Source : Le Monde

La Commission Européenne n’a jamais refusé les prévisions budgétaires d’un pays jusqu’à dernièrement où elle a décidé de refuser le budget italien qui aurait un mauvais impact sur les autres pays membres.

Un projet de loi dans la continuité de la lutte contre la fraude fiscale

Pour finir, ce projet de loi de finances 2019 est un corollaire de la lutte contre la fraude fiscale qui fait perdre près de 100 milliards d’euros à l’État français. 

Image result for fraude fiscale franceDernièrement, un nouveau scandale a encore éclaté concernant les CumEx qui sont, dans une définition simplifiée, des manœuvres exercées par des actionnaires afin de ne pas être fiscalisés par l’État et même, de percevoir des recettes qu’ils ne devraient pas percevoir.

Ainsi, dans son projet de loi contre la fraude adopté le 10 octobre 2018, Gérald Darmanin affirme qu’il souhaite traquer plus facilement les fraudeurs fiscaux et les sanctionner d’une meilleure façon en instaurant notamment une « police fiscale » mise en service au 1er juillet 2019 ou encore,  en rendant public les noms des fraudeurs, soit le « name and shame ».

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