Guerre commerciale entre la Chine et les États-Unis : une trêve est-elle possible ?

Par le 12 avril 2019

Le Président américain se dit satisfait de la tournure que prennent les négociations commerciales en cours avec la Chine. Il espère inciter Pékin à faire plus de concessions sur la réalité de leurs échanges commerciaux.

La guerre commerciale sino-américaine s’achemine-t-elle vers sa fin ?

Le 1er décembre 2018, la Chine et les États-Unis ont achevé, à Pékin, d’intenses négociations avec pour but de mettre un terme à leur conflit. Donald Trump affirmait que leurs prochaines rencontres prendraient la forme d’un sommet « pour signer » un accord. Xi Jinping disait espérer que les discussions se poursuivent dans une atmosphère de « respect mutuel, de coopération » et dans un esprit « gagnant-gagnant » pour aboutir à un accord « mutuellement bénéfique ».

Ce pacte apparaît comme une trêve dans cette guerre économique et semble avoir pour but de donner aux deux dirigeants une marge de manœuvre politique après l’intensification de la lutte qui a causé des dommages des deux côtés du Pacifique.

Des questions en suspens

Si le Président américain a assuré que les discussions se passent « extrêmement bien », certaines questions restent en suspens, concernant les transferts forcés de technologie pour les entreprises américaines travaillant en Chine par exemple. Outre ceci, les États-Unis reprochent à la Chine d’autres pratiques de commerce « déloyale » et réclament des réformes structurelles pour y mettre fin. De plus, il est nécessaire de réduire drastiquement l’énorme déficit commercial de plus de 330 milliards de dollars avec la Chine.

Les États-Unis réclament de surcroît le respect des droits de propriété intellectuelle, la fin du piratage informatique et la levée des barrières non tarifaires, comme par exemple les subventions publiques.

La Maison Blanche a remis à plus tard les droits de douane sur les importations en provenance de Chine. Xi Jinping s’engage également à augmenter les imports américains.
D’autre part, la remonté de 10 à 25% des droits de douane sur 200 milliards de dollars de produits chinois prévue le 1er mars a été repousée, les négociations ayant debutées.

Qu’en est-il aujourd’hui ?

Le 22 mars, les États-Unis ont envoyé un signe positif aux marchés sur l’avancée de leurs négociations commerciales avec Pékin, précisant que les discussions se poursuivraient cette semaine, et que les parties seraient très proches de sceller un accord.

Cette importante information sur la poursuite des pourparlers donne un espoir concernant l’abandon des barrières tarifaires à l’importation, qui porte sur quelques milliards de dollars de biens et de services pour les deux pays.

La reprise des discussions a eu lieu à Pékin le 28 et 29 mars avec le secrétaire d’État au Trésor, Steven Mnuchin, et le représentant au Commerce américain Robert Lighthizer.

Plusieurs médias ont rapporté que le camp chinois aurait fait machine arrière sur un certain nombre de demandes américaines relatives à la protection de la propriété intellectuelle. D’après ces sources, Pékin n’aurait pas obtenu en contrepartie les garanties suffisantes de l’Administration américaine concernant la suspension des sanctions commerciales.

C’est un réel bras de fer commercial qui dure depuis près de deux ans. La Banque centrale américaine (Fed) comme le FMI ont mis en garde les deux belligérants sur les conséquences qu’une guerre commerciale prolongée pourrait avoir pour l’économie mondiale.

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