Les États-Unis et l’Iran : l’escalade de la violence

Par le 10 janvier 2020

Dans la nuit du jeudi 2 janvier au vendredi 3 janvier 2020, le général iranien Qassem Soleimani a été assassiné à Bagdad (Irak) par une frappe aérienne américaine. Ce puissant général, proche de Hassan Rohani, Président de la République islamique d’Iran, commandait l’unité d’élite des forces iraniennes ; les Forces Al-Qods. Mike Pompeo, chef de la diplomatie américaine, s’est empressé d’apporter une justification à ce raid en affirmant que le général iranien préparait une « action d’envergure » représentant une menace imminente pour « des centaines de vies américaines ». La mort de cette figure iranienne a été vivement critiquée par la classe politique internationale craignant une escalade de la violence au Moyen-Orient.

L’Iran, un pays au passé tumultueux

Pays de l’Asie du sud-ouest, l’Iran a toujours été cerné par les conflits et les zones instables ; les iraniens sont perses et pratiquent l’islam chiite, largement minoritaire dans la région par rapport à l’islam sunnite. Dans les années 1950, l’Iran est au cœur de la politique américaine au Moyen-Orient et Washington accorde sa confiance au jeune Shah ; Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Pendant la guerre froide, ce Shah est vu comme le protecteur des États-Unis au Moyen-Orient. Les pays occidentaux l’aide à développer son programme nucléaire. L’Iran commence progressivement à se moderniser. Mais pour les Iraniens, le Shah est un despote qui vit loin de son peuple ; ce dernier réclamant plus de libertés.

Le Shah d’Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, proche des présidents américains, Eisonhower et Nixon.

L’ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, un dignitaire religieux chiite iranien, est en exil pour avoir critiqué le Shah et son alliance avec les États-Unis. Il devient rapidement une icône et les manifestations se multiplient contre le pouvoir en place. Khomeini s’installe en France et c’est à Neauphle-le-Château que lui et ses proches dessinent les nouvelles lignes politiques de l’Iran. Face à la pression de la rue, le Shah quitte l’Iran en 1979 ; la révolution iranienne met un terme à la monarchie. Khomeini est accueilli triomphalement et, grâce à une constitution, nait la République islamique d’Iran dans laquelle le pouvoir du peuple est représenté par un président et un parlement élu et le pouvoir de Dieu est représenté par un Guide suprême ; celui-ci étant Khomeini.

L’ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini devenu Guide de la Révolution de la République islamique d’Iran en 1979

Le 4 novembre 1979, des étudiants escaladent l’enceinte de l’ambassade américaine au cri de « mort à l’Amérique » ayant peur que les États-Unis renversent par un coup d’État le régime nouvellement créé. Cette action est soutenue par Khomeini qui n’hésite pas à rappeler que l’Iran a un ennemi éternel : les États- Unis. Ces derniers ripostent en imposant des sanctions économiques à l’Iran et en rompant ses relations diplomatiques.

Le 22 septembre 1980, l’Irak de Saddam Hussein profite des faiblesses internes de l’Iran pour l’envahir afin d’utiliser ses puits de pétrole. Les puissances occidentales n’interviennent pas directement. Mais voyant l’Iran résistante et susceptible de remporter cette guerre, la France décide de vendre des avions militaires à l’Irak ; pour l’Iran, la France devient « le petit Satan ». Saddam Hussein, fort de ses nombreux soutiens, n’a plus aucune limite et mène des attaques au gaz sarin. Les Gardiens de la Révolution, un groupe paramilitaire iranien directement placé sous l’autorité du Guide suprême, rentrent en action au Liban, alors en pleine guerre civile, en créant le Hezbollah ; une organisation islamiste chiite. Cette dernière aurait commis deux attentats-suicides quasi simultanés ayant frappé les contingents américains et français de la Force multinationale de sécurité de Beyrouth faisant des centaines de morts. Bien que l’attaque ne soit pas directement revendiquée, les Occidentaux n’ont pas de doute sur l’implication du Hezbollah chiite libanais.

Les sauveteurs recherchent des survivants dans les décombres du bâtiment -Drakkar- qui a été détruit par un attentat-suicide commis le 23 octobre 1983 par un kamikaze. © Philippe Bouchon – AFP

L’Iran a pu régler unilatéralement le conflit avec son agresseur irakien. Le retour à la paix est un moment critique car la guerre permettait de fédérer la nation. Les oppositions se réveillent et le régime exécute 5000 prisonniers politiques. Dans le même temps, Khomeini meurt et est remplacé par Ali Khamenei ; la période révolutionnaire s’achève.

En 1997, un religieux modéré, Mohammad Khatami, est élu président. Bien que celui-ci tende la main aux occidentaux, il reste bloqué dans ses réformes et ne réussit pas à faire sortir l’Iran de son isolement diplomatique.

Après les attentats du 11 septembre 2001, les États-Unis lancent leur guerre contre le réseau terroriste Al-Quaïda. Sans le vouloir, ils vont libérer la puissance de l’Iran en éliminant ses pires ennemis ; les talibans d’Afghanistan qui vouent une haine féroce aux chiites iraniens. Bien que cette cause commune permette à l’Iran de livrer des informations aux États-Unis, en janvier 2002, George W. Bush prononce un discours dans lequel il met en garde contre les ambitions dangereuses de l’Iran qui cherche à se doter de l’arme nucléaire ; selon lui, l’Iran est un pays qui fait partie de « l’axe du mal » avec l’Irak et la Corée du Nord. En effet, des opposants iraniens ont révélé l’existence d’un programme nucléaire secret, révélation confirmée par l’Agence internationale de l’énergie atomique (AIEA) ; c’est le début de la crise nucléaire iranienne. Pour les occidentaux, le risque est immense ; ils craignent que les pays du Moyen-Orient, encore très instables, se dotent de l’arme nucléaire. En 2005, la France engage des pourparlers avec l’Iran qui décide de suspendre ses activités d’enrichissement d’uranium. Mais un an après, le Guide suprême revient sur cette décision en estimant n’être soumis à aucune puissance.

Jacques Chirac et Mohammad Khatami en 2005 à l’Élysée. © Patrick Kovarik – AFP

En aout 2005, les Gardiens de la révolution rentrent en politique ; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, qui est l’un des leurs, est élu président. Se développe alors une logique de confrontation permanente avec l’extérieur. En Irak, depuis 2 ans, les troupes américaines occupent le pays. Les chiites, représentant les 2/3 de la population, sont désormais au pouvoir. L’Iran s’engouffre dans la brèche et souhaite occuper des postes stratégiques en Irak ; un homme est en charge des opérations, Qassem Soleimani. Il deviendra l’un des hommes les plus puissants du Moyen-Orient en s’infiltrant en Irak. Ses hommes tissent de véritables réseaux comportant des groupes armés ; l’Irak glisse progressivement dans les bras de l’Iran. Les milices chiites combattent la présence militaire américaine mais ils ne sont pas les seules car les djihadistes sunnites arrivent du monde entier ; débute alors une guerre confessionnelle entre sunnites et chiites.

Qassem Soleimani, général iranien, commandant de la Force Al-Qods du corps des Gardiens de la révolution islamique. © Press Office of Iranian Supreme Leader – ANADOLU AGENCY – AFP

L’Iran a pour objectif de constituer un axe chiite englobant l’Irak, la Syrie et le Liban. De nombreux pays de la région s’inquiètent ; l’Arabie Saoudite, sunnite, craint de voir son influence reculer, ou encore Israël qui est vu par l’Iran comme étant un symbole de l’impérialisme américain au Moyen-Orient.

Parallèlement, les ambitions iraniennes pour le nucléaire sont de plus en plus grandissantes sous la présidence de Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Les Nations unies adoptent des sanctions économiques contre l’Iran et la situation est gelée jusqu’aux élections présidentielles de 2009 lors desquelles Ahmadinejad est réélu avec plus de 60% des voix. Des milliers d’iraniens descendent dans les rues pour dénoncer des fraudes massives. Mais le Guide suprême annonce la victoire de Ahmadinejad.

A cet instant, des discussions secrètes s’engagent entre l’Iran et les États-Unis sur l’énergie nucléaire. En 2013, Hassan Rohani est élu président de la République. L’accord sur le nucléaire est signé le 14 juillet 2015 ; l’Iran renonce à la bombe atomique mais garde le droit, sous la surveillance de l’AIEA, de développer le nucléaire civil, de plus, les sanctions seront levées progressivement mais pourront être rétablies si l’accord n’est pas respecté. Rohani sort peu à peu l’Iran de son isolement.

L’accord historique sur le nucléaire iranien de 2015. © Fabrice Coffrini – AFP

L’arrivée au pouvoir de Donald Trump, fervent opposant au régime iranien

En 2018, les États-Unis se retirent de l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien ; Donald Trump estime que cet accord est « pourri » car il « n’a jamais su apporter la paix ». Ce retrait provoque de vives réactions des autres signataires dénonçant une erreur de la part du président américain.

En avril 2019, les Gardiens de la Révolution entrent dans la liste des organisations terroristes dressée par Washington. De plus, le président Trump supprime les dérogations pour commercer avec l’Iran et souhaite « priver le régime de sa principale source de revenus ». La tension monte d’un cran lorsque Donald Trump décide de déployer un porte-avions dans le détroit d’Ormuz, passage stratégique du pétrole mondial, en prétextant une menace du régime iranien.

En septembre 2019, s’est tenue à New-York l’Assemblée générale de l’ONU lors de laquelle Emmanuel Macron a tenté d’apaiser les tensions entre les deux pays tout en souhaitant une renégociation de l’accord sur le nucléaire. Mais Donald Trump estime qu’il n’a pas besoin de médiateur et le Guide suprême iranien, Ali Khamenei, critique violemment le président français en l’estimant « soit naïf, soit complice des États-Unis ».

 

Emmanuel Macron et Hassan Rohani le 23 septembre 2019 à New-York. © Ludovic Marin – AFP

Le 27 décembre 2019, un ressortissant américain meurt en Irak lors d’une attaque d’une base militaire irakienne. Bien que cette attaque ne soit pas revendiquée, Washington l’attribue à une milice pro-iranienne. Les États-Unis ont répliqué en bombardant cinq bases du Hezbollah irakien, provoquant la mort de 25 personnes.

Ce qui a mis le feu aux poudres est l’attaque de l’ambassade américaine à Bagdad le mardi 31 décembre 2019 par plusieurs centaines de manifestants. Ces derniers, brulant des drapeaux américains, lançant des pavés en direction des bâtiments abritant l’ambassade et criant « mort à l’Amérique », sont des combattants du Hachd al-Chaabi ; une coalition de paramilitaires dirigée par des irakiens pro-iraniens. « L’Iran a tué un sous-traitant américain et en a blessé plusieurs. Nous avons répondu avec force, comme nous le ferons toujours. L’Iran orchestre désormais une attaque de l’ambassade américaine en Irak. Ils en seront tenus pleinement responsables. Par ailleurs, nous attendons de l’Irak qu’elle mobilise ses forces pour protéger l’ambassade, et nous leur avons signifié ! », a twitté Donald Trump à la suite de cette attaque.

Des militants pro-iraniens, qui participaient au cortège funéraire des combattants tués, sont parvenus à traverser l’ensemble des checkpoints de la Zone verte de Bagdad, jusqu’au siège de l’ambassade américaine. © Khalid Mohammed – AP

C’est à la suite de ces évènements que Donald Trump a pris la décision d’assassiner Qassem Soleimani, homme-clé de l’influence iranienne au Moyen-Orient.

La crainte d’une guerre ouverte entre les États-Unis et l’Iran

L’assassinat du général Qassem Soleimani a provoqué de très vives réactions. Des dizaines de milliers de manifestants sont descendus dans les rues de Téhéran afin d’apporter leur soutien au gouvernement iranien et dénoncer le raid américain. L’Iran promet de venger la mort de son général « au bon moment et au bon endroit » et dénonce « le terrorisme d’État de l’Amérique ». C’est chose faite ; ce mercredi 8 janvier 2020, l’Iran a lancé 22 missiles contre les bases militaires américaines d’Al Assad et d’Erbil en Irak sans faire de victimes.

Sur son compte Twitter, à la suite de l’assassinat de Qassem Soleimani, Donald Trump a dans un premier temps publié une simple image du drapeau américain. Puis dans un second tweet il a souligné que le général Qassem Soleimani « était directement ou indirectement responsable de la mort de millions de gens, dont celle de nombreux manifestants en Iran. Si l’Iran ne sera jamais capable de l’admettre clairement, Soleimani était à la fois détesté et craint dans son pays. Ils ne sont pas aussi tristes que les dirigeants essayent de le faire croire au reste du monde. Il aurait dû être tué il y a des années ! ». Le président américain appelle l’ensemble des ressortissants américains à quitter « immédiatement » l’Irak. Il a également envoyé plus de 3000 militaires supplémentaires au Moyen-Orient.

Dans un communiqué, Antonio Guterres, Secrétaire général de l’ONU, appelle « les dirigeants à faire preuve du maximum de retenue » en ajoutant que « le monde ne peut se permettre une nouvelle guerre dans le Golfe. ». De son côté, le président français a « rappelé l’attachement de la France à la souveraineté et à la sécurité de l’Irak et à la stabilité de la région ». Il a appelé l’Iran à « revenir rapidement au plein respect de ses obligations nucléaires et à s’abstenir de toute provocation ».

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